A solid centre-back partnership has been the foundation of many of the Premier League’s best sides. From Tony Adams and Martin Keown, Rio Ferdinand and Nemanja Vidic, John Terry and Ricardo Carvalho, to even the undeniable importance of Wes Morgan and Robert Huth; a settled, reliable partnership is at the heart of any great side.
With Arsenal’s title charge underpinned by a dominant defence led by Gabriel and William Saliba, we investigate the current crop of Premier League centre-backs. Who are the most effective combinations? Which teams can barely field the same partnership from week to week? And are we seeing the death of the back three?
Arsenal’s failure to sustain their title bid last year was partly put down to losing Saliba, who picked up a season-ending injury in March. The drop in quality between Saliba and his deputy, Rob Holding, was evident. Arsenal lost only three of the 27 games that Saliba and Gabriel started together, winning 21 of those (78%). That win percentage dropped to 33% when Holding and Gabriel were partners.
This season, the Gabriel-Saliba axis is once again powering Arsenal’s title tilt. They have started 24 league games together, which, along with Everton’s James Tarkowski and Jarrad Branthwaite, is the most of any centre-back partnership in 2023-24. When Gabriel and Saliba have been on the pitch, Arsenal’s defensive numbers are absurdly good. Mikel Arteta’s side have conceded just 0.76 expected goals per game – the lowest of any centre-back partnership in the league. They have also kept more clean sheets (nine) and conceded the joint-fewest shots per 90 minutes (0.9).
Arsenal and Everton’s consistency is followed by Crystal Palace, who have used the Joachim Andersen and Marc Guéhi combination 20 times, Bournemouth (Illia Zabarnyi and Marcos Senesi 19 times) and Tottenham (Cristian Romero and Micky van de Ven 18 times).
Romero and Van de Ven’s number would be higher if not for the bad hamstring injury the Dutchman suffered in November last year. When fit, Van de Ven has transformed the way Tottenham defend, with his lightning-quick recovery pace enabling Ange Postecoglou’s side to play a high, smothering defensive line. He is also the perfect foil for the aggressive and combative Romero. Spurs have won 12 of the 18 games (66.7%) those two have started together, compared to four of 10 (40%) without one of them starting.
At the other end of the consistency spectrum are Nottingham Forest, Sheffield United and Manchester United (spot the odd one out). Each of their most common centre-back partnerships have started together just six times this season. United’s most common centre-back duo has been 36-year-old Jonny Evans and the injury-prone Raphaël Varane. Ten Hag has used 11 different centre-back combinations. For a team that has exclusively played with just two central defenders, that is a lot.
Only two sides have used more unique centre-back combinations and both teams (Luton 14 and Manchester City 13) have often deployed three centre-halves. Furthermore, Ten Hag’s starting centre-back partnership has finished the game in just nine of United’s 28 matches this season (just 32% – the lowest rate in the league). With such a changeable defence, is it any surprise they have given up 15 or more shots in well over half of their matches (57%) this campaign?
The most successful partnerships
Gabriel and Saliba have won 17 of the 24 games they have started together this season (70.8%), which is almost exactly in line with Arsenal as a team (20 wins from 28 matches – 71.4%). That makes them one of the most successful centre-back partnerships this season, but not quite the most.
That honour goes to Ezri Konsa and Pau Torres at Aston Villa, who have started eight games together and won seven of them (87.5%). Of other centre-back partnerships to have started five or more games together this season, Liverpool’s Jarell Quansah and Virgil van Dijk (80%) are the only other pair to have won 80% or more of their games.
Spare a thought for Nottingham Forest duo Murillo and Willy Boly, as well as Anel Ahmedhodzic, Jack Robinson and John Egan at Sheffield United, who have started the most games in defence together (six) without winning a single one of them. Oh, and Murillo has also started five games with Andrew Omobamidele without winning one either. Tough going.
The death of the back three?
After seeing a gradual rise in the number of teams playing with three centre-halves and wing-backs in recent years, the last two Premier League seasons have seen sides prefer to go with the traditional two-man pairing. The rise of the three-man defence increased in the late 2010s. It peaked in 2021-22, with Graham Potter (Brighton), Nuno Espírito Santo (Wolves) and Thomas Tuchel (Chelsea) all using three centre-halves regularly.
But that trend has now reversed. Teams all the way from Arsenal down to Brighton now play almost exclusively with two centre-backs in a back four, while a further three in Chelsea, Crystal Palace (although that will change with Oliver Glasner) and Nottingham Forest (ditto with Nuno) have mainly opted for two centre-backs. Three teams are flexible in their style: Brentford, Wolves and Sheffield United. Luton are firmly in the three centre-back camp.
Manchester City are a unique case, with Pep Guardiola often deploying as many as four recognised centre-backs across his backline. For the most part he has used two centre-backs this season (68%), but has occasionally used three (32%). It’s not in a conventional way though, with Guardiola pushing another one of his defenders forwards into midfield to create a 3-2 shape in build-up, rather than utilising wing-backs.
The underlying numbers
Lastly, we can isolate the playing time of centre-back partnerships and look at how the expected goals against numbers stack up when those players are on the pitch. The Arsenal pairing of Gabriel and Saliba lead the way, conceding an outstandingly low 0.79 xG against while both are on the pitch. Villa’s duo of Konsa and Torres have been nearly as watertight, giving up just 0.97 xG per 90 minutes, with the former hoping to force his way into Gareth Southgate’s squad for the summer.
Elsewhere, it is perhaps surprising to see the Forest duo of Murillo and Boly rank so well here – particularly as they are yet to win a game together as a centre-back partnership – but they have been excellent when given the opportunity to play together.
Given their positions in the table, it’s less surprising to see defensive combinations from Sheffield United and Luton make up some of the most defensively porous partnerships. The trio of Ahmedhodzic, Robinson and Egan is the only centre-back partnership to have conceded over 3.0+ xG per 90 minutes.
It remains to be seen whether Arsenal fans will ever utter the names “Gabriel and Saliba” with the same deference as “Keown and Adams”. But if they stay fit, maintain their excellent levels and guide Arsenal to a first league title in 20 years, that potential reality comes ever closer.
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