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Premier League title: Will Arsenal, Liverpool or Manchester City win?

Last updated on .From the section Premier Leaguecomments949

The Premier League trophy, Mikel Arteta, Jurgen Klopp and Pep Guardiola

Liverpool's hopes of winning the Premier League are down from 1.7% to 0.5% according to Opta after Saturday's 2-2 draw with West Ham.

A run of one win from five league games has taken Jurgen Klopp's side all but out of the reckoning, leaving Manchester City and Arsenal battling for supremacy.

Premier League leaders Arsenal host Tottenham in the north London derby at 14:00 BST. Despite being a point clear of Manchester City, they are only given a 26.7% chance of the title.

That is because City, the 72.8% favourites, have a game in hand on Arsenal - and two on Liverpool. Pep Guardiola's side visit Nottingham Forest on Sunday at 16:30 BST.

Opta, with its 10,000 'supercomputer' simulations,external-link believes City's dressing room is the place to be.

Predicted Premier League final table - Opta
Team% chance of winning titleCurrent position & points
1. Man City72.82nd - 76 points
2. Arsenal26.71st - 77 points
3. Liverpool0.53rd - 75 points

Current Premier League table

Premier League
TeamPlayedPointsGDGSForm (past 5 games)
1. Arsenal34775682WWLWW
2. Man City33764880DWWWW
3. Liverpool35754177DLWLD
If teams are level after 38 games, the title will be decided on goal difference and, if still level, goals scored

What are the remaining fixtures?

DateLiverpoolManchester CityArsenal
28 AprilNottingham Forest (a)Tottenham (a)
4 MayWolves (h)Bournemouth (h)
5 MayTottenham (h)
11 MayFulham (a)
12 MayMan Utd (a)
13 MayAston Villa (a)
14 MayTottenham (a)
19 MayWolves (h)West Ham (h)Everton (h)

When were the closest three-way title races?

There have been a handful of three-way Premier League title races that went down to the final weeks.

2013-14: By as late as 6 May 2014, only two points separated Liverpool, Manchester City and Chelsea. City won their game in hand to leapfrog a stumbling Liverpool and went on to snatch the title. Liverpool's disappointment was characterised by Steven Gerrard's famous slip in their 2-0 defeat against Chelsea and then Crystal Palace's comeback from three goals down to draw 3-3.

2001-02: On 23 April 2002, Arsenal led Liverpool by a point with Manchester United a further point back. But Arsenal had a game in hand and were partway through a run of 11 consecutive wins. They sealed the title by beating United at Old Trafford.

1995-96: In mid-March, with eight games left, Manchester United were level on 61 points with Newcastle, and Liverpool were on 59 points in third. Despite having played two games more at the time, Sir Alex Ferguson's side saw off the challenge of Kevin Keegan's Magpies.

What happened at this stage last year?

Graph showing how the 2022-23 Premier League title race unfolded
Three draws in a row in April 2023 cost Arsenal momentum as Manchester City won last season's title, with the Gunners' probability of being champions nosediving

What if the teams finish level on points?

Should there be a tie, the league is decided on goal difference, then goals scored, then most points in the head-to-head matches, then most away goals in the head-to-head record.

Whatever happens, don't be too surprised if there are more twists and turns between now and the final day of the season on 19 May.

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949 comments

  • Comment posted by Mark Bowen, at 21:30 10 Mar

    As a lifelong Chelsea fan and someone who loves football,despite the rivalry where not much love is lost in the rivalry I can only applaud&appreciate the level that Arsenal,Lpool,M City,have been this season,with 3 clubs going eyeball to eyeball in this football brinkmanship,this sort of thing may not happen again for a long time..

    • Reply posted by mark, at 01:29 11 Mar

      mark replied:
      Well said Mark.
      Spoken like a true football fan.
      Guess there's a few of us left then.

  • Comment posted by invincible 49, at 19:56 10 Mar

    If Arsenal manage to beat City away, then all the remaining fixtures seem much less ominous. That game will be massive for all three teams.

    Spurs, Villa and Brighton will have a big say in who finishes top.

    • Reply posted by whatcanisay, at 20:51 10 Mar

      whatcanisay replied:
      They all have to play Spurs

  • Comment posted by Dave Pup, at 20:39 10 Mar

    As an Arsenal fan, I want either us or Liverpool. Never City. Sick of them and their 100+ charges

    • Reply posted by kingkladze, at 20:45 10 Mar

      kingkladze replied:
      Can't wait to add to your pain

  • Comment posted by United States of Whatever, at 19:54 10 Mar

    Nobody will win it with 10 games to go.
    Best wait and see.

    • Reply posted by Gandalf, at 20:16 10 Mar

      Gandalf replied:
      Indeed. I appreciate that it’s a very exciting run-in but there was an almost identical article already this week. Do we really need more?

  • Comment posted by nightprowler, at 21:15 10 Mar

    I think the team with the most points will win

    • Reply posted by mark, at 01:28 11 Mar

      mark replied:
      That's rather astute,

  • Comment posted by Markyp1965, at 20:14 10 Mar

    It’s ridiculous to think that the computer simulations only give Arsenal such a small chance of winning the title. Yes, of course it’s going to be tough, and even as a Gooner, I have to agree that Man City would rightly be considered the favourites. However, it’s almost as if things such as current form and momentum, are not being considered.
    Would be great to see Arsenal silence the doubters.

    • Reply posted by Christoph_erson, at 20:20 10 Mar

      Christoph_erson replied:
      No.

      *Spurs fan

  • Comment posted by How on Earth, at 20:15 10 Mar

    Love it no one has a clue … however one of the teams has beaten the other other 2 … fact

    • Reply posted by mark, at 01:25 11 Mar

      mark replied:
      It's a two horse race between Liverpool and Manchester City!
      Not a supporter of either so I can just forward to the next 10 games!

  • Comment posted by brittennisfan, at 20:58 10 Mar

    Oh enough about Liverpool "slipping" in 2014. They were 4th at the end of January and to win the title from there would have had to win 13 of their last 14 matches. As it was, they "only" managed to win 12 out of 14 and for some reason are ridiculed. They should never have been in the mix at all and going on an 11 match winning streak at that time was almost unheard of. Lazy journalism.

    • Reply posted by Baybars, at 23:10 10 Mar

      Baybars replied:
      No, they bottled it.

  • Comment posted by D1710887022625, at 20:48 10 Mar

    Hahaha Liverpool and Arsenal could potentially slip up versus MUFC... yeah right, we scraped past 16th placed Everton thanks to their finishing and a coupla penalties...

    • Reply posted by Dizzo88, at 21:19 10 Mar

      Dizzo88 replied:
      😂😂😂

  • Comment posted by wingate1, at 19:44 10 Mar

    When City get their 10 point deduction it will be a two horse race

    • Reply posted by footie fan, at 19:48 10 Mar

      footie fan replied:
      10 points? They will end up being relegated to one of the local Manchester leagues if they are found guilty of the 115 charges that have been issued against them.

  • Comment posted by kickabout, at 21:45 10 Mar

    It would be great if the title was won buy a club that isn’t a sportswashing project, has a staggering amount of charges against them and throws money around like confetti to get what they want.

    • Reply posted by Bless-um, at 23:57 10 Mar

      Bless-um replied:
      Just like Chelski, and Man U£d too.

  • Comment posted by conradk, at 20:30 10 Mar

    Why not start predicting the winner of the 56/57 season, it’s just as relevant.
    With 30 points still to play for, and any possible number of scenarios that could happen, this is utterly worthless.

  • Comment posted by D1711473059080, at 20:10 10 Mar

    Gracenote don't like Arsenal

    45% chance of a win at Brighton. Pardon ?
    39% chance at Tottenham. Pardon ?
    38% chance at Man U. Pardon ?

    • Reply posted by Lawrence Howard, at 20:20 10 Mar

      Lawrence Howard replied:
      2 wins at Old Trafford in 22 years, Tottenham decent record at home to Arsenal & difficult to beat, history does mean something.

  • Comment posted by Clubber Lang, at 19:39 10 Mar

    Whoever wins, it will be a season to remember!

    • Reply posted by nicholas, at 21:25 10 Mar

      nicholas replied:
      Not for Erik Ten Hag.

  • Comment posted by Pierre Blaise, at 20:58 10 Mar

    This analysis is not scientific, and only based on old form. Many constants like poor officiating, injuries to key players have all been ignored. These statistics were made baseless by Leicester. City were lucky today, any other day they lose today's game

    • Reply posted by Artsol70, at 22:55 10 Mar

      Artsol70 replied:
      But in a 38 game season you need to be lucky in some games...that does not mean you cant up your game in the next fixture....this same Liverpool were battered by Arsenal not too long ago...Let's see what happens at etihad in the next game...if Arsenal beat City then i will give them the title but a lot of tricky games ahead

  • Comment posted by Blackhawk87, at 00:38 11 Mar

    The prediction analyst needs to get another job. If he thinks Manchester United will cause Liverpool or Arsenal problems then think again. I'm a United fan and yesterday Everton had twenty shots on target and if Salah or Saka were in Everton's side they would have destroyed us. Our midfield is weak and frail and lacks intelligence.

    • Reply posted by Eye_Said, at 12:56 11 Mar

      Eye_Said replied:
      As a City fan I do think you are right, but United are dangerous on the counter. They just need to have a perfect day and Arsenal/Liverpool to have a bad one. Very very unlikely, but not impossible.

  • Comment posted by Alex Mufti, at 20:48 10 Mar

    Don’t think it will be City. They got no legs in midfield. Rodri can’t do everything

    • Reply posted by Sirrantsalot, at 12:52 11 Mar

      Sirrantsalot replied:
      They have virtually the same team as last year, when they won everything.

  • Comment posted by D1713714349217, at 20:22 10 Mar

    Hungerford Town!!! 🤞🏻

    • Reply posted by Average Cyclist, at 20:38 10 Mar

      Average Cyclist replied:
      Thatcham surely?

  • Comment posted by Noodlebug, at 20:27 10 Mar

    If Arsenal beat City next game, they've got to be the favourites. They're not just beating all-comers, they are winning comfortably.

    Liverpool have shown tenacity but are dependent on so many last-gasp winners and fortunate decisions, that when they DON'T get them like today, they seem bemused.

    City are not their usual fluent best but even at 70% they are well capable of winning a title.

    • Reply posted by Runnerboy27, at 21:22 10 Mar

      Runnerboy27 replied:
      Fortunate decisions like Diaz goal against Spurs and an unpunished kung fu kick. Something tells me you were trying to be objective but couldn’t but help on Liverpool

  • Comment posted by Ribzz, at 20:46 10 Mar

    ABCDEF- Arsenal beating City doing everyone favour

    • Reply posted by Mythosmaniac, at 21:19 10 Mar

      Mythosmaniac replied:
      ABCDEF - Arsenal beaten City dominating English football 31/03/24

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